Federal politics in Prince George

And the hopelessness of the left

This newsletter is many things. A place for me to share things I’ve learned, to talk about urbanism as it relates to City Council decisions, to reflect on how our geography shapes our behaviour - or, sometimes, a place to think out loud.

Today is largely that last bucket - an entire write up reflecting on the upcoming Federal election from the position of a fairly hopeless progressive, and maybe a nudge toward hope at the end.

Anyways - if you’re not interested in some fairly directionless ramblings, I would say today’s newsletter is a good one to skip.

Otherwise, enjoy the read and I look forward to some good conversation in the comments.

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At 7:45pm on Monday evening, Brittany and I did our democratic duty.

I ticked my little circle, folded my little paper, and stuffed it into its little cardboard box, ready to see it whisked away and eventually tabulated along with some (hopefully large) percentage of the 40 million eligible Canadian voters.

I did this because *takes deep breath* voting is an important part of a healthy democracy and it is a privilege not afforded by many on this planet.

I did this, already knowing with near certainty, the result of my riding.

I say this, somewhat breathlessly, because I live in the Prince George-Northern Rockies riding - a MASSIVE electoral district that stretches from my home in the Hart Highlands, all the way up past Fort Nelson, to the Yukon border, and over to Dawson Creek, following the Alberta border to Valemount and McBride - it is a riding that the Conservatives have held dominion over for nearly 16 years in the form of Bob Zimmer.

It’s a tricky riding, to be fair.

Our candidates are forced to try and message their way into the hearts and minds of the farmers who live on the outskirts of Chetwynd, the industry-dependent white collar office workers in Fort St. John, the self-employed photographer newsletter writers of Prince George, the recently furloughed Canfor workers in Mackenzie - the list goes on. While not entirely unique to Canada’s urban/rural divides, it is nevertheless a daunting challenge.

My politics, at this point, should not surprise any of the readers.

You might take a second to guess if I voted orange or red, but I am sure you can guess I hold no love for the blue.

A fact that is largely tied to my leftist social values but impossible to separate from my borderline socialist fiscal values as well. I believe strongly in social safety nets for the less fortunate, I believe climate change is an existential threat, I believe in the power of expertise and parties who are still deferential to it, and despite being a vocal critic, I believe the government has power to do great good for Canadians.

Blue Strongholds in the Interior BC

I’ll say explicitly here, if it wasn’t ABUNDANTLY clear, I am not a political analyst or expert pundit. As with all topics this newsletter addresses, put on your skeptic’s hat.

The latest provincial election, while not a 1:1 with people’s Federal politics, is a good temperature check on things.

An electoral map showing 2024’s BC election results by party colour.

October 2024, the BC provincial election saw a true blue Conservative sweep across Northern BC.

In my own riding of Prince George-Mackenzie, Kiel Giddens claimed just over 60% (11, 310 votes) of the vote after surviving his ship jump from the BC United collapse trumping the NDP’s Shar McRory at 28% (5242 votes) and the Green’s James Steidle at 8% (1577 votes). Even counted together, the leading progressive parties barely crawl past 50% of the Conservative total.

2021’s Federal election showed a similar blue pummeling of the BC Interior with both PG ridings landing firmly blue to their incumbents.

An electoral map of the 2021 Federal Election Results.

Gearing up for April 28th and knowing that the Liberals and NDP have had less than a month to A) introduce the candidates and begin campaigning and B) unseat the incumbents of Zimmer (14.5 years) and Doherty (9.5 years), I’d say if you’re trying to show up as a passionate, progressive voter in Northern BC, it’s a bit like lighting a candle in a windstorm.

Hope, However Small

With that said, I want to put an asterisks on all this.

In 2021, first time candidate and political rookie Audrey McKinnon representing the NDP brought a 20% voteshare to incumbent Doherty’s 50%.

In 2019, another political rookie Mackenzie Kerr grew the Green Party’s share of the vote from 3% (2015) to 9% which shrunk back down in 2021 to 3% when Kerr yielded her spot to a new candidate.

In 2015, Liberal’s Tracey Calogheros brought a 31.5% voteshare to Doherty’s 36.6%.

I read these results as the Northern BC Conservative strongholds are not unbreakable or immoveable - I’d say they’re sticky but they’re not stuck. Progressives who show up with a compelling message CAN bring meaningful numbers to the polls.

I’ll also just add, it is impossible to separate the variables fairly (political climates, especially Federal, are tied to so many other things than just riding candidate quality).

How does Longley combat Singh’s nosediving approval/satisfaction as a party leader since 2021? How well will Zimmer contend with Polievre’s swinging popularity? Do parachute candidates like Njenga stand a chance because of Carney’s skyrocketing approval?

Party leader approval ratings in polling leading up to Election Day.

But over 10 years and 3 Federal Elections means we’ve never seen an orange or green sign on it with the same name back-to-back.

That’s meaningful when vying against a now 15~ and 12~ year incumbent.

This election will be the first time we break with that tradition as the NDP’s Cory Grizz Longley will be running against Zimmer for the second time. Having eeked out 6600~ votes (13%) in the last election, I will be curious to see if his repeat candidacy brings more to the table, especially in an environment that seems a bit more suspect of the Conservative ethos than 2021.

Kurjata’s Evergreen Take

I want to take a tiny aside here and point to history. “Those who do not study the past are doomed to repeat it” or whatever that quote is and I think, in many ways, this whole newsletter has already been written, but better:

In 2017, friend of the newsletter

Andrew Kurjata

wrote a pre-Substack Medium article titled “Does British Columbia really have an urban rural divide?”

I bring this article up because part of the progressive resignation that I hear among my own peers is “ugh, rural ridings just vote Conservative - whatcanyado??”

If I can be so bold to summarize some of the key findings that Andrew breaks down, it’s that we are mistaken if we tie politics to geography too tightly. My favourite quote in the article is “Every party has voters everywhere.”

To boil these complexities down to urban = left and rural = right isn’t just reductive, it’s incorrect.

While Andrew’s piece is certainly more data driven, and I’m largely just pointing at the *vibes*, it feels correct to me to say that it isn’t just about numbers, it’s about presence.

Why Write This?

Pardon me for a second, while I climb up on to my little soap box.

It sometimes feels like Prince George - and Northern BC - is a political afterthought and while I feel a bit hopeless, I am not resigned to that feeling.

To me, resignation is contagious and it’s possibly the best explanation I have for why someone like Zimmer can hold this riding for 16 years with almost 0 political threat - because the progressives have resigned.

I want to believe resolve can also be contagious too.

I don’t know what else to say here other than if you’re looking at the sea of blue signs down Ospika and wondering if voting still matters here, I’ve come to the conclusion that it does. I think talking about it is important, and if it isn’t this election, maybe conversations like this can be the beginning of the snowball rolling down the hill for the next one.

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Thanks for reading and to everyone who reached out after last week’s newsletter, I appreciate you greatly. This week has been a bit of a whirlwind in terms of conversations, folks reaching out, and just a general sense of good discourse around the whole GGF topic that I did not expect.

Importantly, the newsletter hit a new milestone of views, nearly doubling my old high score of 1400 readers so to all the new folks and eyeballs - welcome! If you shared last week’s newsletter - thank you!

I hope to put all of this in a follow-up some time in the future but for now, just know that I appreciate the discourse.